Q1 2026 Recycling Data Shows Lower Reported Supply

According to the first published Q1 2026 figures, total reported recycling and export tonnage currently sits at approximately 1.45 million tonnes.

That compares to around 1.89 million tonnes reported during Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year reduction of roughly 23%.

Several major material streams have shown particularly significant declines:

• Paper: down 34%
• Plastic: down 28%
• Wood: down 38%
• Glass Aggregate: down 45%

At the same time, overall 2026 packaging obligations are forecast to increase by around 4%, with Plastic obligations expected to rise by approximately 8%.

On the face of it, that creates a tighter supply-and-demand position than the market experienced at the same stage last year.

However, the figures need to be interpreted carefully.

Why The 2026 PRN Market Is Harder To Read

One of the biggest changes affecting the market this year is the transition from the National Packaging Waste Database (NPWD) to the new Report Packaging Data (RPD) system.

Historically, the PRN market operated with relatively clear monthly reporting visibility. Market participants could often identify which exporters or reprocessors had not yet submitted evidence, helping buyers understand whether lower supply reflected genuine shortages or simply delayed reporting.

That visibility has changed significantly under the new reporting structure.

The RPD system has introduced additional reporting categories and separate national reporting outputs, creating a more fragmented and less transparent market picture than many businesses and compliance schemes have previously been used to.

As a result, the lower Q1 figures may reflect several different factors, including:

• Delayed reporting submissions
• Changes to evidence timing
• Administrative disruption linked to the new system
• Genuine tightening in recycling evidence supply

At this stage, it is difficult to determine exactly how much of the current reduction is structural and how much is linked to reporting transition challenges.

Plastic PRNs Remain The Biggest Watchpoint

Plastic continues to attract the most market attention heading into the rest of 2026.

Several pressures are currently combining within the Plastic PRN market:

• Higher forecast producer obligations
• Continued reliance on export markets
• Additional scrutiny and verification requirements for some exporters
• Lower visible supply entering the system

Plastic PRNs have historically been one of the more volatile areas of the compliance market, and if lower reported supply continues into Q2, buyers may begin securing compliance cover earlier in the year to reduce risk exposure.

That could create stronger competition for available tonnage and place additional upward pressure on prices.

Paper, Wood And Glass Aggregate Also Showing Pressure

While Plastic remains the primary focus, Paper has also attracted significant market attention following a much weaker Q1 position than the sector has typically experienced historically.

Wood and Glass Aggregate have also reported notable reductions in recycling evidence volumes during the first quarter.

Although some materials can experience uneven reporting patterns throughout the year, sustained weaker supply across Q2 and Q3 could tighten market liquidity further and increase pricing sensitivity across multiple material streams.

By contrast, Steel, Aluminium and Glass Remelt currently appear relatively more balanced based on available Q1 data and may see less immediate pricing pressure if supply levels stabilise.

What Could Happen Next for PRN Prices?

The next few reporting updates will likely shape the direction of the PRN market for the remainder of 2026.

If delayed evidence from Q1 begins flowing into the market during Q2, some of the current supply concerns could ease, and pricing volatility may stabilise.

However, if reported recycling evidence remains weak throughout Q2 and Q3, the market could become increasingly reactive.

Potential outcomes may include:

• Upward pressure on PRN prices
• Reduced market liquidity
• Earlier buying activity from obligated businesses
• Increased pricing volatility in higher-risk materials

For businesses with packaging obligations, this reinforces the importance of monitoring the market closely rather than waiting until later in the compliance year.

Why PRN Prices Are More Difficult To Predict In 2026

One of the biggest challenges businesses now face is reduced market transparency.

The move to the RPD system means many buyers have less visibility over whether supply shortages are temporary, administrative, or genuinely structural.

That uncertainty alone can influence market behaviour.

When visibility reduces, markets often become more cautious and more reactive to future data releases. Even the perception of tightening supply can influence purchasing activity and pricing behaviour, particularly in more sensitive materials such as Plastic and Paper.

How Flame UK Supports Your Packaging Compliance

As PRN market conditions continue to evolve, businesses may need to take a more proactive approach to packaging compliance and procurement planning.

At Flame UK, we support businesses across the UK with packaging compliance guidance, sustainability support, and waste management strategies designed to improve visibility, strengthen reporting, and support long-term compliance planning.

Whether your organisation needs support in understanding packaging obligations, reviewing recycling performance, or navigating changing market conditions, our team can help.