PRN prices are rising sharply in 2026 as recycling evidence shortages and higher packaging recycling targets put pressure on the...
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PRN Market Update 2026: Rising Prices, Evidence Shortages and the Impact on Business Waste Costs
PRN prices are rising sharply as the UK packaging recycling market faces significant pressure from evidence shortages, higher recycling targets and changes to reporting requirements. These challenges are driving up costs across the packaging recycling sector and affecting businesses throughout the UK.
Despite substantial price increases, the additional recycling evidence needed to meet the UK’s packaging recycling targets has not entered the market at the rate previously expected.
Plastic, steel and wood are among the materials experiencing particular pressure, with plastic PRN prices breaching £650 per tonne for the first time this year. Indications are that further increases are likely.
These pressures are already affecting businesses, with some experiencing higher waste collection and recycling charges, reduced recycling rebates and increased packaging compliance costs.
With uncertainty surrounding evidence availability and potential government intervention, further changes to waste management costs may follow as the compliance year progresses.
So, why are PRN prices rising so sharply, how are these changes affecting businesses, and what can organisations do to manage the impact?
In this Article
- What’s changed in the PRN market during 2026?
- Why are PRN prices increasing?
- Which packaging materials are most affected?
- How are rising PRN prices affecting business waste costs?
- Could the government intervene?
- What can businesses do to manage rising costs?
What’s Changed in the PRN Market During 2026?
Earlier this year, we highlighted concerns around packaging recycling evidence availability, increasing recycling obligations and the potential impact on PRN prices.
As 2026 has progressed, these concerns have developed into a more challenging market, with evidence shortages persisting despite substantial price increases.
Several factors are contributing to the situation.
Changes to PRN reporting requirements
New reporting requirements introduced in January 2026 have changed how accredited reprocessors and exporters record packaging waste and generate PRNs and Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs).
The transition to the new digital reporting system also experienced delays, with functionality required for PRN issuance not becoming available until the end of February.
Additional waste-log, reporting and verification requirements have increased the administration involved in generating recycling evidence.
Exporters must also record confirmation that eligible packaging waste has reached an approved overseas reprocessing facility before issuing the corresponding PERN.
These changes mean packaging waste may have been recycled or exported without the associated evidence immediately becoming available to purchase.
Higher recycling targets
Businesses with packaging recycling obligations must also meet higher material-specific recycling targets in 2026.
The statutory targets have increased across all six main packaging material categories, including plastic, steel, wood, paper, glass and aluminium.
With demand for evidence increasing while its availability remains constrained, the market is facing additional pressure.
Why Are PRN Prices Rising So Sharply?
PRN prices are influenced by the supply of eligible recycling evidence and demand from businesses required to meet packaging recycling obligations.
When evidence availability is limited relative to demand, prices can increase significantly.
Historically, higher PRN prices would be expected to encourage additional eligible recycling activity and evidence generation. However, this response has been weaker than expected during 2026.
Changes to reporting requirements, delays in evidence generation and additional export documentation mean that higher prices have not resulted in the additional evidence supply the market requires.
How much have PRN prices increased?
Published industry price data illustrates the scale of the increases during 2026.
Indicative PRN prices per tonne. Actual prices vary according to transaction date and market conditions.
Plastic prices have been particularly volatile, with industry reporting in September indicating that transactions had reached £650 per tonne and above.
For businesses with substantial packaging recycling obligations, these increases can have significant financial implications.
For example, a business requiring 1,000 tonnes of plastic recycling evidence would face an additional £200,000 in evidence costs if the price increased by £200 per tonne.
Why Isn’t More Recycling Evidence Becoming Available?
One of the most important developments in the 2026 market is the difference between packaging waste being recycled and the corresponding evidence becoming available.
A recycling facility may have processed eligible packaging waste, but the associated PRN could still be progressing through reporting or verification requirements.
Similarly, exported packaging waste may not generate a PERN until the required overseas receipt information has been recorded.
The Environment Agency’s published recycling figures also include credited waste balances, which are not necessarily the same as PRNs already issued and available to purchase.
Consequently, the amount of evidence available to trade can be tighter than headline recycling figures suggest.
Higher PRN prices cannot automatically resolve these reporting and evidence-generation delays.
Which Packaging Materials Are Most Affected?
The current market challenges vary considerably between packaging materials.
Plastic: Plastic remains one of the greatest areas of concern, with evidence availability particularly constrained and prices increasing significantly throughout 2026.
Steel: Steel is experiencing substantial evidence supply pressure, with a significant improvement needed to meet outstanding obligations.
Wood: Wood PRN prices have increased considerably, with additional evidence required during the remaining months of the compliance year.
Paper and board: Paper and board is in a comparatively stronger position. However, its reliance on export evidence means overseas verification and documentation requirements can still affect evidence availability.
Glass and aluminium: Glass remelt and aluminium have generally demonstrated stronger recycling performance, although evidence availability and pricing continue to require monitoring.
What Does the Latest PRN Supply Data Show?
The July 2026 market assessment provided by Smart Comply highlights the scale of the challenge facing the UK packaging recycling market.
At the end of July, approximately 3.2 million tonnes of additional recycling evidence was still required to meet the UK’s 2026 packaging recycling obligations.
To meet this requirement, an average of approximately 639,000 tonnes of evidence needed to be generated each month between August and December, compared with the year-to-date average of around 531,000 tonnes.
This represented a required increase of approximately 20% in the monthly evidence supply rate.
The required increase was considerably higher for certain materials:
- Plastic: 71% increase in the average monthly supply rate required.
- Steel: 134% increase required.
- Wood: 31% increase required.
These figures reflect the market position at the end of July, rather than the remaining evidence shortfall as of September 2026.
Although delayed evidence may still enter the market, uncertainty remains over whether sufficient evidence will become available across the more constrained materials before the compliance deadline.
How Are Rising PRN Prices Affecting Business Waste Management Costs?
The impact of the current PRN market extends beyond businesses with direct packaging recycling obligations.
Changes in evidence prices and availability can influence the commercial arrangements between recycling facilities, waste management providers and the businesses using their services.
Some Flame UK clients have already experienced higher waste collection or recycling charges, reduced recycling rebates and increased processing fees. Packaging compliance scheme invoices have also increased.
Why are waste management charges changing?
PRNs provide an additional revenue stream for accredited packaging waste reprocessors and exporters, influencing the economics of packaging recycling.
However, higher PRN prices do not automatically mean that recycling becomes more profitable or that waste collection charges will decrease.
Changes to reporting requirements, evidence-generation delays, operational costs and material market conditions can all influence the prices recycling operators charge or the rebates they offer.
These changes may be passed through the supply chain, resulting in higher collection or processing charges, reduced recycling rebates or adjustments to existing service prices.
The impact varies depending on the material, recycling route and individual supplier arrangements.
Could business waste costs increase further?
With evidence availability remaining constrained across several materials, further PRN market changes could affect waste management costs during the remainder of 2026.
Businesses may experience additional price adjustments as suppliers respond to changing recycling market conditions.
However, the scale and timing of any increases will depend on individual contracts, suppliers and the materials being managed.
For businesses with direct packaging recycling obligations, higher evidence procurement costs may also be reflected in their compliance scheme invoices.
Could the Government Intervene in the PRN Market?
With evidence availability remaining constrained, there is growing concern that some businesses may struggle to secure sufficient PRNs to meet their 2026 packaging recycling obligations.
Defra and the UK environmental regulators are aware of the pressures affecting the market, with potential intervention being discussed.
Industry reports in September indicated that possible measures under consideration included changes to the regulatory approach where producers or compliance schemes cannot secure sufficient evidence because of market shortages.
However, no formal short-term intervention mechanism or implementation date has been confirmed.
Businesses should therefore continue planning against their existing statutory recycling obligations rather than assume that potential government action will reduce the amount of evidence required.
Separately, Defra has consulted on longer-term reforms to the PRN system, with a joint government response expected in autumn 2026.
What Can Businesses Do to Manage Rising Waste Costs?
With PRN market pressures already affecting some commercial waste and recycling services, businesses should review their existing arrangements and identify opportunities to manage costs.
Key areas to consider include:
- Review waste management costs: Identify which waste streams are contributing most to overall costs and whether recent price changes are affecting your business.
- Improve waste segregation: Keeping recyclable materials separate can help maintain material quality, reduce contamination and support more effective recycling.
- Review collection arrangements: Check whether your containers, collection frequencies and waste services remain suitable for your requirements.
- Reduce unnecessary waste: Identify opportunities to minimise packaging waste and reduce the amount of material requiring collection and processing.
- Speak to your waste management provider: Understanding the reasons behind price changes can help your business plan ahead and identify potential cost-saving opportunities.
Businesses with direct packaging recycling obligations should also review their outstanding evidence requirements and maintain regular communication with their compliance scheme.
How Flame UK Can Help
With PRN market pressures already affecting some commercial waste and recycling costs, understanding your waste management arrangements is more important than ever.
At Flame UK, we work with businesses across the UK to review their waste services, identify opportunities to improve recycling performance and explore ways to manage waste management costs.
Whether you have experienced recent price increases, want to review your existing waste arrangements or are looking for a more efficient approach to managing your business waste, our team is here to help.
Concerned about rising waste management costs? Get in touch with Flame UK to discuss your current waste arrangements and explore how we can help.
📧 businessdevelopment@flameuk.co.uk
📞 0115 896 5460
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Frequently
Asked Questions
Clear answers to common questions about rising PRN prices in 2026, packaging recycling evidence shortages, their impact on business waste costs and how businesses can manage increasing charges.
Why have PRN prices increased so significantly in 2026?
PRN prices have increased because of higher recycling targets, constrained evidence availability and changes to reporting and verification requirements. Delays in generating recycling evidence mean that supply has not increased as quickly as expected, despite higher market prices.
Which packaging materials are most affected by the PRN evidence shortage?
Plastic, steel and wood are among the materials experiencing the greatest pressure in 2026. Plastic PRN prices have increased significantly, while steel and wood require improvements in evidence supply to meet outstanding obligations.
Why isn’t more recycling evidence becoming available despite higher PRN prices?
Changes to reporting, verification and export documentation requirements mean that eligible packaging waste may have been recycled without the corresponding PRN or PERN being immediately available. Higher prices do not automatically resolve these evidence-generation delays.
Will rising PRN prices increase my business waste collection costs?
They can. Some businesses are already experiencing higher waste collection and recycling charges, reduced recycling rebates and increased processing fees. However, the impact varies depending on the materials involved, recycling routes, supplier arrangements and wider market conditions.
Could the government intervene to reduce PRN prices or change compliance requirements?
Defra has been considering potential measures to address evidence shortages affecting the 2026 PRN market. However, no formal short-term intervention mechanism or implementation date has been confirmed. Businesses should continue planning against their existing statutory obligations unless official regulatory changes are announced.
What can businesses do to manage rising waste management costs?
Businesses should review their waste management arrangements, identify which waste streams are contributing most to their costs and explore opportunities to improve segregation, reduce contamination and optimise collection frequencies. Speaking to a waste management provider can also help identify opportunities to improve efficiency and manage costs.
